Presidential poll in Brazil: Lula's candidate Haddad emerging second behind the far-rightist Bolsonaro

In order: Bolsonaro, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva, Alckmin and Fernando Haddad - Photo: "O Globo" Archives.

Brazilian far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro held a solid lead ahead of the October 7th election following a serious stabbing suffered during a popular rally 10 days ago. However, Workers Party (PT) candidate Fernando Haddad emerged in second place, signaling a potential polarized right-left runoff, a poll (CNT/MDA) showed this Monday morning.

Bolsonaro, who is in the hospital and unable to campaign, has 28,2% of voter support, according to the survey by pollster MDA. Haddad, who replaced imprisoned former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the ticket last week, had 17,6% in his first showing in an MDA poll.

Haddad’s numbers indicated that Lula, banned from running due to a corruption conviction, was successfully transferring his support to the former São Paulo mayor, who is well placed to face off with Bolsonaro in the second round in late October.

Center-leftist Ciro Gomes had 10,8% of voter intentions and business-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin was fourth with 6,1%, while environmentalist Marina Silva trailed with 4,1%.

Perspectives to a posible Runoff

In a runoff, which would be triggered if no candidate wins half of the valid votes, Bolsonaro would defeat all other candidates, except Ciro Gomes, with whom he is statistically tied (37,8% for Ciro, against 36,1% for Bolsonaro), MDA said.

One in four voters are still undecided or say they will annul or leave their ballot blank in Brazil’s most uncertain election in a generation.

Other polls published last week showed Bolsonaro losing a runoff against most other candidates.

The nationwide MDA survey of 2.002 people was carried out for the transportation sector lobby CNT (National Confederation of Transport) between September 12th and 15th and had a margin of error of 2,2%, meaning results could vary that much either way.

Sources: Mercopress Agency, Reuters, Investing.com

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Why Convicted Former President Lula Showed in Surveys for Presidential Election?

Why Convicted Former President Lula Showed in Surveys for Presidential Election?

Photo: correio.rac.com.br

For the eyes of a foreigner it is out of the rational to understand how a convicted person could run for president as his name was appearing in all political surveys as a candidate.

To better explain that, it is correct to point out that this was all, in fact, a script of a theatrical piece that could only be played due to the institutional gaps that fulfill the Brazilian judiciary system.  

In other words, it’s the gaps co-existing among the timetable of the interpretation of a law and the rule of a normative that makes this scenario possible.

The first true is that Lula cannot run for president in compliance with the country’s Clean Record Law, which bans the candidacy of individuals convicted by an appellate court. He has been in jail since April 7 and was sentenced to 12 years and one month in prison for corruption and money laundering.

The second true is that Lula appeared on the polls only because polling firms had to put him there and this happens because Lula’s Workers’ Party registered him as their candidate.

Better explaining, it was possible to register him as candidate because there is a normative resolution of the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court in Brasilia (TSE, acronym in Portuguese), which requires all candidates registered to be put on presidential surveys.

But how the Workers Party got permission to include Lula’s name as a registered candidate? Because this is how things are in Brazil. First you do the wrong, then someone has to call for the wrong and contest his election candidacy to the Electoral Court. The Court will then judge, and if the wrong is proved, then his candidacy will be removed.

By last Thursday, August 30^th, there were more than 15 requests to cancel Lula’s registration as candidate.

Between the lines, the Worker’s Party was counting with the laziness of the Brazilian judiciary system. The most promised schedule for TSE judge the case was the date of September 17. Meanwhile the Worker’s Party want to gain public notoriety that Lula could win the election once more and this enforces their interpretation of coup d'etat.

This scenario was just not confirmed because the court ruled on Friday, August 31^st,  that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cannot run for a third term.

But, would Lula really win the Elections? The first run, definitely. He has been shown with 37% of the electored, i.e. people that votes on him with wrongdoings or not. The second run? Hard to say. There is a great part of the population that rejects to vote on him. Still, it would all depend on the course of the election campaigns over these couple of months to come before election day.  

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