Eleições 2020: pronto para começar?

Como você, estivemos nos preparando. Também nos reiventamos! Hoje, iniciamos a largada de nossa área focada nas eleições 2020.

Depois de analisar o atual cenário, adotamos o Instagram como principal ferramenta para redes sociais e de marketing político para divulgação e interlocução com candidatos e eleitores. Nele, você ficará sabendo mais sobre o pleito deste ano e vai ampliar sua rede junto consoco. Vamos começar? Siga https://www.instagram.com/quorumpolitica/ 

Equipe Quorum Estratégia Política.

A ​Atuação Estratégica e Marketing na Análise de Risco Político e Eleitoral da ​Quorum concilia tarefas essenciais para quem busca a eleição ou reeleição a um cargo público ou à composição junto aos poderes executivo e legislativo, com precisão, capacidade de antecipação e poder de iniciativa. Nossos consultores e colaboradores têm ampla experiência em campanhas eleitorais no cenário brasileiro e em Campinas, especificamente.

Os serviços de ​Coordenação de Campanha Eleitoral fornecem ao candidato atendimento personalizado e sob demanda nas tarefas de acompanhamento presencial que objetivam orientação ao candidato e sua equipe. Nesse sentido, com respaldo jurídico próprio e com consultor colaborador experiente na atuação de campanhas em Campinas, serão realizadas as seguintes atividades de consultoria política:

Planejamento estratégico eleitoral, englobando pré-campanha, campanha e pós-campanha
Definição da estratégia eleitoral
Podendo ser precedido de pesquisa qualitativa a ser contratada

Orientação político-partidária quanto a definição de apoios ao candidato majoritária, não estendido a seu vice a não ser nas hipóteses de atuação conjunta;

Direcionamento na estratégias para a captação de recursos de doação e dos fundos eleitorais e partidários;

Análise de perfil adversário e instrução quanto à nominata de vereadores, potencial eleição e composição de bancada.

Direcionamento na articulação com players políticos interessados ou com ligação com o cenário da eleição municipal e eleições gerais;

• Identificação de possíveis apoiadores institucionais;
• Análise de risco
• Adversários e opositores potenciais
• Cenários

Coordenação geral e política junto e em nome do candidato quanto às demandas e responsabilidades referentes à:

• Formação de equipe operacional
• Agenda de campanha (Política, institucional e partidária)
• Comunicação e marketing
• Jurídico

Financeiro

• Acompanhamento
• Arrecadação
• Desembolso
• Execução

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Brazil in Davos: President Bolsonaro will defend reforms and trade liberalization

Photo: Adriano Machado - Reuters

The Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will outline his government’s economic reform agenda and plans to increase trade with the rest of the world during his speech at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos today.

Bolsonaro, a far-right former Army captain who took office on Jan. 1st vowing to end years of graft and crack down on violent criminals, will also pledge to lower rampant bureaucracy in Brazil, which many view as a drag on the country’s stuttering economy.

Bolsonaro’s 40-minute speech is scheduled for Wednesday, and he will also highlight efforts to simplify the economy, while pledging to give legal certainty to investors and defend the rule of law.

Bolsonaro is also expected to comment on the situation in neighboring Venezuela, which is undergoing an unprecedented crisis and growing international pressure against the regime of President Nicolás Maduro.

A long-standing critic of Maduro, Bolsonaro has ruled out military action to overthrow the current government, but said last week that a solution for Venezuela will come “briefly,” without giving details of how that would happen.

On his return from Davos, Bolsonaro will settle on a model for its pension reform proposal, his chief of staff, Onyx Lorenzoni, said on Tuesday.

Sources: Agência Brasil, Reuters

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Bolsonaro vence e será o novo Presidente da República

O Deputado Federal e Capitão da reserva Jair Bolsonaro, de 63 anos, acaba de ser eleito Presidente da República. Bolsonaro assumirá o cargo em 1º de janeiro de 2019. Com 94,4% das seções eleitorais apuradas, Bolsonaro tem 55,5% dos votos válidos e o petista Fernando Haddad tem 44,5%.

O resultado gerou festa de milhares de apoiadores de Bolsonaro que estavam em frente ao condomínio onde mora o candidato do PSL na Barra da Tijuca, no Rio de Janeiro. Em São Paulo, fogos de artifício foram ouvidos, e simpatizantes de Bolsonaro se reuniram para comemorar na avenida Paulista.

Mais cedo, Bolsonaro votou sob forte esquema de segurança nesta manhã em uma escola de uma vila militar do Rio de Janeiro e afirmou que estava confiante de uma vitória.

Diante de uma campanha tão acirrada e de elevado patamar de polarização, o maior desafio do vencedor agora deverá ser buscar um discurso de união.

A partir da eleição do Capitão da reserva, conhecido por sua retórica dura e por suas declarações polêmicas, permanece a dúvida se terá capacidade e disposição de fazer esses gestos e de unir forças em torno de si para governar.

No hotel onde Haddad e apoiadores acompanhavam a apuração predominava o silêncio, pouco depois das 19h.

As cerca de 200 pessoas que se reuniram no hotel na capital paulista já não mostravam muito entusiasmo. Ao chegar no local em torno de 18h, Haddad foi recebido com gritos de “vamos virar”, mas dirigentes do partido mostravam apenas um “otimismo cauteloso”, de quem considerava que uma virada não era mais impossível, mas não provável.

Ao contrário de quando perdeu a eleição para Prefeitura de São Paulo, em 2016, para João Doria, Haddad decidiu, segundo a fonte, não ligar para o adversário para parabenizá-lo pela vitória.

Fontes: Congresso em Foco, Reuters

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Presidential poll in Brazil: Lula's candidate Haddad emerging second behind the far-rightist Bolsonaro

In order: Bolsonaro, Ciro Gomes, Marina Silva, Alckmin and Fernando Haddad - Photo: "O Globo" Archives.

Brazilian far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro held a solid lead ahead of the October 7th election following a serious stabbing suffered during a popular rally 10 days ago. However, Workers Party (PT) candidate Fernando Haddad emerged in second place, signaling a potential polarized right-left runoff, a poll (CNT/MDA) showed this Monday morning.

Bolsonaro, who is in the hospital and unable to campaign, has 28,2% of voter support, according to the survey by pollster MDA. Haddad, who replaced imprisoned former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the ticket last week, had 17,6% in his first showing in an MDA poll.

Haddad’s numbers indicated that Lula, banned from running due to a corruption conviction, was successfully transferring his support to the former São Paulo mayor, who is well placed to face off with Bolsonaro in the second round in late October.

Center-leftist Ciro Gomes had 10,8% of voter intentions and business-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin was fourth with 6,1%, while environmentalist Marina Silva trailed with 4,1%.

Perspectives to a posible Runoff

In a runoff, which would be triggered if no candidate wins half of the valid votes, Bolsonaro would defeat all other candidates, except Ciro Gomes, with whom he is statistically tied (37,8% for Ciro, against 36,1% for Bolsonaro), MDA said.

One in four voters are still undecided or say they will annul or leave their ballot blank in Brazil’s most uncertain election in a generation.

Other polls published last week showed Bolsonaro losing a runoff against most other candidates.

The nationwide MDA survey of 2.002 people was carried out for the transportation sector lobby CNT (National Confederation of Transport) between September 12th and 15th and had a margin of error of 2,2%, meaning results could vary that much either way.

Sources: Mercopress Agency, Reuters, Investing.com

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Why Convicted Former President Lula Showed in Surveys for Presidential Election?

Why Convicted Former President Lula Showed in Surveys for Presidential Election?

Photo: correio.rac.com.br

For the eyes of a foreigner it is out of the rational to understand how a convicted person could run for president as his name was appearing in all political surveys as a candidate.

To better explain that, it is correct to point out that this was all, in fact, a script of a theatrical piece that could only be played due to the institutional gaps that fulfill the Brazilian judiciary system.  

In other words, it’s the gaps co-existing among the timetable of the interpretation of a law and the rule of a normative that makes this scenario possible.

The first true is that Lula cannot run for president in compliance with the country’s Clean Record Law, which bans the candidacy of individuals convicted by an appellate court. He has been in jail since April 7 and was sentenced to 12 years and one month in prison for corruption and money laundering.

The second true is that Lula appeared on the polls only because polling firms had to put him there and this happens because Lula’s Workers’ Party registered him as their candidate.

Better explaining, it was possible to register him as candidate because there is a normative resolution of the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court in Brasilia (TSE, acronym in Portuguese), which requires all candidates registered to be put on presidential surveys.

But how the Workers Party got permission to include Lula’s name as a registered candidate? Because this is how things are in Brazil. First you do the wrong, then someone has to call for the wrong and contest his election candidacy to the Electoral Court. The Court will then judge, and if the wrong is proved, then his candidacy will be removed.

By last Thursday, August 30^th, there were more than 15 requests to cancel Lula’s registration as candidate.

Between the lines, the Worker’s Party was counting with the laziness of the Brazilian judiciary system. The most promised schedule for TSE judge the case was the date of September 17. Meanwhile the Worker’s Party want to gain public notoriety that Lula could win the election once more and this enforces their interpretation of coup d'etat.

This scenario was just not confirmed because the court ruled on Friday, August 31^st,  that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cannot run for a third term.

But, would Lula really win the Elections? The first run, definitely. He has been shown with 37% of the electored, i.e. people that votes on him with wrongdoings or not. The second run? Hard to say. There is a great part of the population that rejects to vote on him. Still, it would all depend on the course of the election campaigns over these couple of months to come before election day.  

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